On the last day of March, "the college entrance examination confirmed a one-month extension" rushed to the top of the Weibo Hot List.

According to the news, according to the Ministry of Education, with the consent of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, in 2020 national colleges and universities enrollment has agreed to postpone the examination for a month. At the same time, the relevant person in charge of the Ministry of Education said that the middle school entrance examination may also be delayed because of this. He said that the provinces determined the time for the middle school entrance examination according to the actual situation, but in principle, it was arranged after the college entrance examination.

In addition, the education departments of Shandong, Guangdong, Shaanxi, Sichuan, Hunan and other provinces have stated that it is allowed to shorten the summer vacation and weekends appropriately to make up for the delays and delays in starting courses.

As soon as the news came out, several families were happy and sad. I'm glad that the senior high school students who had to go online to prepare for review of the exams at home due to the epidemic this year, but this is not really good news for tourism companies looking forward to using summer as a breakthrough for the growth of annual performance.

How does the extension of the college entrance examination affect the summer vacation?

According to Ctrip's previous financial report, in the third quarter of 2019, Ctrip's tourism and vacation business achieved operating revenue of 1.6 billion yuan, an increase of 19% year-on-year; and accommodation booking operating income was 4.117 billion yuan, an increase of 14% year-on-year; revenue from transportation ticketing business contributed A year-on-year increase of 3% to 3.721 billion yuan. These data explain to a certain extent the prosperity of China's summer vacation in 2019.

However, affected by the new crown epidemic, the number of tourists and per capita consumption this summer will not only have a high probability that there will be no so-called "revenge" increase, and it is likely to be lower than last year's level. However, for tourism companies with tight cash flows, the summer period is still an important period to restore vitality. However, the extension of the college entrance examination and the release of signals from multiple provinces and cities to reduce weekends and summer vacations are equivalent to shortening the time for student travel. , To a certain extent will also reduce the parents' willingness to take their children to travel in the summer.

However, Global Travel News commentator Cheng Chaogong said that if the college entrance examination is postponed, the summer vacation will not be affected much. There are two reasons for this: First, the peak summer travel period in previous years was from late July to mid August, and the peak period was about three weeks. The extension of the college entrance examination does not affect the summer travel arrangements of most families. Second, from the perspective of the structure of the travelling crowd, summer travel families are the main force, especially parent-child families below K12 account for the largest proportion. High school students' delay in summer vacations has limited impact.

"But if the high school entrance examination is also postponed on a large scale, it will still have a certain impact on the summer vacation." Cheng Chaogong said. In addition, he believes that the impact of the shortened summer vacation on non-Chinese high school entrance examination students on summer vacations will not be too great. "These students have previously studied online through online courses, and the progress of the lessons will not be too much. Therefore, even if the vacation is postponed, It can only be shortened by about a week. "

An industry source, who declined to be identified, believes that the key to influencing summer travel is the epidemic. His point of view is "chic", he thinks that even in the summer, non-medium and high school candidates are taking offline lessons than vacations. After the middle and high school entrance examination ends, even if the summer vacation is shortened due to the extension, those who should go out will still travel.

Summer outbound tours or return to zero, domestic tours are centered around

In the following, we will analyze the summer vacation from two aspects of outbound tourism and domestic tourism.

From the data of outbound travel, according to Ctrip's outbound and group tour orders in July 2019, the top 10 destinations most favored by Chinese and group tourists are Thailand, Japan, Vietnam, Russia, Indonesia, Singapore, Italy, USA, Chinese Taipei, Philippines.

However, all of these regions are affected by the new crown epidemic. Among them, the United States and Italy are the most affected by the epidemic, and the situation in Japan, the Philippines, Australia, and Singapore is not optimistic. As of now, the new crown epidemic has spread to more than 200 countries and regions around the world.

According to Zhang Wenhong, director of the infection department of Huashan Hospital affiliated to Fudan University, according to the current global epidemic situation, it is almost impossible to end the epidemic this summer. Trump, who had previously vowed to return to work before Easter (April 12), has also changed his policy to delay social distance until the end of April-experts say that the US epidemic may reach its peak in the next week or two.

Domestic tourism companies have adjusted their strategies in response to the epidemic situation this year. Shanghai Chunqiu said that this year's outstanding backbone of Europe and the United States will be transferred to the development of domestic long-term tourism; and the departure has also revealed that at present some tour guides and staff of departure agencies are facing a situation where they have nothing to do. Plan to help more tourism operators join the platform to start and jointly expand the surrounding tourism.

In the subdivided field of outbound research, which has been highly popular in summer outbound tourism in the past, Cheng Chaogong believes that the severe form of the epidemic is likely to completely zero out of this summer's outbound research.

In terms of domestic travel, according to Donkey's "summer travel consumption summary report for 2019", the top ten domestic long-term hot destinations in 2019 are Sanya, Beijing, Xiamen, Guilin, Lijiang, Qingdao, Hulunbuir, Xi'an, Zhangjiajie, and Kunming. Among them, seaside cities, mountains and rivers, and other summer resorts account for a large proportion. However, these cities, as popular cities for long-term summer vacations, are likely to be affected by the compression of summer time for elementary and middle school students this year.

At present, the most hopeful recovery is also the tourism industry is vigorously tapping potential, is the subdivision of peripheral tourism. In the "Six Insights into the Shared Accommodation Industry 2020 Report" recently released by Airbnb, it was pointed out that affected by the epidemic, it is a short-distance self-driving trip of 160 kilometers around-that is, the "3-hour travel agency ecosystem". One of your favorite travel methods and willingness to spend.

The "Qingming Tourism Resilience Report" recently released by Flying Pig also pointed out that the local and self-driving tours within a radius of 200 kilometers centered on home have clearly recovered. According to the traffic big data forecast of Gaode Map, the active areas of self-driving tour nationwide are mainly concentrated in the central, southwest and eastern regions. With the shortened summer period for elementary and middle school students across the country, summer domestic travel will likely continue this trend.

In any case, it is difficult for the tourism industry to return to last year's level this year. Cheng Chaogong previously wrote that compared with the SARS epidemic in 2003, the recovery of the tourism industry after the new crown pneumonia epidemic may be relatively slow, and it is unlikely that a retaliatory rebound (recovery of more than 50 percentage points) similar to 2004 will occur. The overall tone of is likely to be restorative growth, but the growth rate in 2021 is still more likely to exceed the average level in the past five years.